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Prediction Market Boom Blurs Line Between Trading and Gambling | PYMNTS.com

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The prediction-market moment is here. At its best, the embrace of events-based contracts could represent a new asset-class: event outcomes traded with derivatives-grade infrastructure transparency and liquidity.

At its worst, it could serve as a potential regulatory arbitrage path around state gaming laws, one with thin consumer-protections and opaque payout mechanics.

The only sure outcome? Right now, it appears to be forward momentum.

On Tuesday (Oct. 21), DraftKings acquired Railbird Technologies and its wholly owned subsidiary, Railbird Exchange, which is a federally licensed exchange designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and focuses on event-based contracts. Polymarket will reportedly serve as the designated clearinghouse for DraftKings’ upcoming prediction market.

Polymarket, alongside its prediction market competitor Kalshi, on Tuesday also announced a landmark partnership with the National Hockey League (NHL).

The moves underscore how both prediction markets are moving into professional sports, and sports betting platforms are moving into events-based contracts.

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Cryptocurrency platform Kraken last week (Oct. 16) acquired Small Exchange, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market, from IG Group for $100 million, showing that crypto platforms are interested in this emerging asset class, too.

Unlike traditional sports betting markets, prediction markets are regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and that leaves a lot of opportunity for potentially capturing users across states that have individually stringent iGaming, sports betting, and gambling laws.

Access to a CFTC-regulated designation, such as designated contract market (DCM) status, is increasingly becoming the gateway for prediction-market legitimacy.

See also: Prediction Markets Eye US Growth While Watching Out for Crypto Whales 

Why the Surge in Events-based Contracts?

The momentum in the prediction-market space is underpinned by several forces. First, the market architecture allows for far broader products: finance, culture, politics, entertainment, weather and increasingly sports, all packaged as yes/no contracts or binary outcomes.

Second, the entry of major platforms signals scale. Per a Monday (Oct. 20) report, prediction markets have hit a new all-time record high of $2 billion in weekly volume, reaching higher heights and more volume than during the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.

Still, despite the appearance of financial-market sophistication, prediction markets can raise troubling parallels with gambling. That is most apparent when the event contracts track sports competitions, anecdotal political outcomes or entertainment awards. Such structures can resemble bets more than hedges on commodity futures.

The functional difference is subtle but material. In a state-licensed sports book, the operator carries risk, sets odds (vig or juice) and keeps an eye on gaming compliance, anti-money-laundering (AML) controls, responsible-gambling safeguards and state tax remittances, all tailored to the sports-betting context.

Prediction-market exchanges, in contrast, offer contracts where traders can buy and sell shares (or positions) at prices reflecting probabilities, enter and exit positions freely across the life of a contract and ideally face no built-in house edge. A probability of 0.30 that a team wins the next game might translate into a price of $0.30; if the event happens, the position pays $1; if it doesn’t, $0. And the market mechanism determines the rate of return.

That structure aligns with trading rather than wagering — hence the attractiveness of the derivatives-regime path. But it also means participants may not be protected by responsible-gaming guardrails, or by the licensing oversight intended to safeguard state-licensed gamblers. State regulators, tribal gaming entities and the American Gaming Association (AGA) have flagged the issue repeatedly.

Read more: Robinhood Sues States to Turn Sports Bets Into Wall Street Trades 

Betting, Hedging or Trading?

In September, the U.S. CFTC appeared to boost the trajectory of prediction markets when it issued a no-action letter regarding event contracts. Still, Kalshi is currently facing an ongoing legal battle over its right to offer sports event contracts, as is Robinhood which has sued regulators in Nevada and New Jersey.

For regulators, the central challenge is to decide whether prediction markets are genuinely derivatives or essentially bets in disguise. For operators, the challenge could be to build compliant, transparent infrastructures around payments, payouts, clearing and liquidity, all while fending off competition.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner and operator of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced Tuesday (Oct. 7) that it invested $2 billion in Polymarket, gaining not only a financial stake but also a central role as the global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data.

Robinhood  CEO Vlad Tenev, in an interview earlier this year, characterized prediction markets as distinct from gambling with societal value, though he acknowledged the regulatory gray zone.

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Speed Raises $8 Million to Expand Bitcoin and Stablecoin Payment Solutions | PYMNTS.com

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The company will use the new funding to build capacity, expand to new regions, develop more merchant tools, enable cross-border and creator payouts, and maintain reliability and compliance, it said in a Tuesday (Dec. 16) blog post.

Speed’s offerings include a global payment layer called Speed Merchant that is designed for merchants, platforms and payment systems and enables them to accept both Bitcoin and stablecoins, according to the post.

The company also offers a Lightning wallet called Speed Wallet that serves individuals and businesses and enables Bitcoin and stablecoin transfers, supports global payouts, offers local on- and off-ramps, and powers USDT transactions, the post said.

“We’ve always believed that Bitcoin and stablecoins can power everyday payments,” Speed CEO Niraj Patel said in the post. “That requires real infrastructure—fast, compliant and scalable. This investment validates that belief and accelerates our mission.”

Speed co-founder Jayneel Patel said in the post that the company aims to “solve real problems with technology.”

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“Speed started as a merchant solution and has grown into a global payment network,” Jayneel Patel said, adding the company is “ready to take the next leap.”

Stablecoin issuer Tether and venture fund ego death capital co-led the funding round, per the post.

Tether said in a Tuesday press release that its investment supports its strategy to support Bitcoin-aligned financial infrastructure and expand the utility of its USDT stablecoin in real-world payment environments.

“We support teams building practical infrastructure that reduces friction in payments and expands access to reliable settlement rails,” Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in the release.

Tether’s USDT stablecoin is the most traded cryptocurrency by volume around the world.

Adam Gebner, associate at ego death capital, said in a Tuesday blog post that Speed processed over $1.5 billion in payment volume over the past 12 months and serves more than 1.2 million users.

“By bridging Lightning and stablecoins in a single, compliant platform, Speed is positioning itself as foundational infrastructure for the Bitcoin and stablecoin economy, serving merchants, platforms and users across both developed and emerging markets,” Gebner said in the post.

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Databricks Targets $134 Billion Valuation in New Funding Round | PYMNTS.com

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Data analytics/artificial intelligence (AI) firm Databricks is reportedly raising $4 billion in a new funding round.

This Series L round would value the company at $134 billion, up 34% from its last session of funding during the summer, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported Tuesday (Dec. 16).

Ali Ghodsi, Databricks’ co-founder and CEO, told the WSJ the company plans to use the new funding to invest in its core data-analytics products and AI software, while also letting its workers engage in secondary share sales.

The company, among the most valuable private firms in Silicon Valley, also plans to hire around 600 fresh college graduates in 2026, the CEO added, in addition to adding thousands of new jobs worldwide in Asia, Latin America and Europe. It also plans to hire AI researchers, who are typically paid top salaries, the WSJ added.

The report noted that Databricks has benefited from the AI boom, which relies partially on private corporate data to customize AI models. Databricks told the WSJ that its data-warehousing product, which can serve as an underlying data platform for AI services, surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate at the end of October.

This year has seen Databricks ink deals with OpenAI and Anthropic to help sell AI services to business customers. Each of these partnerships are designed to push clients to develop AI agents, or independent bots that can carry out tasks on behalf of humans.

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The company’s new funding round comes three months after Databricks’ Series K round, which valued it more than $100 billion, up from $62 billion at the start of the year.

In other AI news, PYMNTS wrote earlier this week about The General Intelligence Company of New York, a start up developing agent-based systems designed to take over large portions of company operations.

“The company’s name deliberately evokes Gilded Age ambition, and founder Andrew Pignanelli told PYMNTS that the reference was intentional,” that report said. “He said he views AI as foundational infrastructure for the next era of company-building, much as railroads and industrial capital reshaped the United States economy more than a century ago.”

The company started by working backward from “the one-person billion-dollar business,” as Pignanelli termed it.

“We started at the end, the actual one-person billion-dollar company, and worked our way back and we were like, ‘What can we do today?’” he said.

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Apple App Store Fees Face Pressure From EU Developers | PYMNTS.com

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A collection of app developers and consumer groups want Europe to enforce laws against Apple.

The Coalition of App Fairness (CAF) on Monday (Dec. 15) issued an open letter to the European Commission (EC) accusing the tech giant of “persistent” non-compliance with Europe’s Digital Markets Act (DMA).

The letter follows findings from the EC that Apple had violated the DMA by keeping developers from directing users to alternative payment methods, fining the tech giant $588 million.

Apple in turn revised its terms for its app store to impose fees that ranged from from 13% for smaller businesses to up to 20% for App Store purchases. However, the CAF says Apple has not addressed what it calls a core issue: the company’s fees are preventing fair competition.

“The law says that gatekeepers like Apple must allow developers to offer and conduct transactions outside of the App Store free of charge,” the letter said. “However, Apple is now charging developers commission, fees of up to 20% for such transactions. This is a blatant disregard for the law with the potential to vanquish years of meaningful work by the Commission.”

The CAF also notes that Apple plans to introduce new terms and conditions for the App Store next month, and says it suspects the new terms will include fees that violate the DMA.

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“Apple cannot be permitted to exploit its gatekeeper position by holding the entire industry hostage,” the letter added.

PYMNTS has contacted Apple for comment but has not yet gotten a reply. The company had in September called on the commission to rethink the DMA, which was created to prevent market abuse by tech giants doing business in Europe.

“Over that time, it’s become clear that the DMA is leading to a worse experience for Apple users in the EU,” Apple wrote in a blog post. “It’s exposing them to new risks, and disrupting the simple, seamless way their Apple products work together. And as new technologies come out, our European users’ Apple products will only fall further behind.”

In its blog post, Apple argued the DMA requirements for allowing other app marketplaces and alternative payment systems don’t take into account the privacy and security standards of the App Store, putting customers at risk for being overcharged or scammed.

“The DMA also lets other companies request access to user data and core technologies of Apple products,” the company wrote. “Apple is required to meet almost every request, even if they create serious risks for our users.”

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