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5 Things ChatGPT Said Will Make the Holiday Shopping Gift List | PYMNTS.com

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Ahead of the holiday rush, we asked ChatGPT to predict how the 2025 holiday shopping season will unfold. The model identified five clear trends in spending categories, shopping channels, payment options, and timing. These trends act as early signals of demand in the coming weeks and provide a basis for comparing AI’s forecast with actual consumer behavior.

Electronics Lead Again, With Apparel and Beauty Rebounding

ChatGPT predicts that electronics will be the top holiday category as shoppers upgrade to AI-enabled laptops, tablets, earbuds and home devices. The model expects more households to replace old tech, especially among remote workers and students.

Apparel is bouncing back after two slower years. ChatGPT anticipates increased demand for outerwear, winter basics and athleisure, supported by AI-driven sizing tools that lower return risks. Beauty and self-care also remain strong, with high interest in fragrances, skincare kits, and hair tools driven by gifting trends on TikTok and Instagram.

Home goods continue to sell but lean more towards small appliances and décor instead of large furniture.

Online Shopping Dominates, but Stores Pull Shoppers Back

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ChatGPT expects online channels to maintain the largest share of holiday spending, boosted by AI-powered search, retailer chat assistants, and personalized deals that make discovery easier. Many shoppers will use chat prompts to compare products, check prices, and access curated gift lists.

In-store shopping is picking up again. The model expects more people to visit physical stores for apparel try-ons, electronics demos, same-day pickups, and last-minute gifts. This aligns with PYMNTS’ 2025 findings, which show that consumers browse online but still complete and confirm purchases in stores.

Discount retailers, warehouse clubs, and off-price chains are likely to perform well as shoppers try to stretch their budgets. Direct-to-consumer brands are also regaining ground as AI tools help target returning customers more effectively.

Credit Cards Stay on Top While BNPL Expands Sharply

ChatGPT predicts that credit cards will continue to be the main holiday payment method because of rewards and broad acceptance. PYMNTS reporting backs this up; Despite rising usage of debit cards and mobile wallets, credit cards still dominate larger online purchases.

Installment payments are growing quickly. ChatGPT expects buy now, pay later (BNPL) usage to increase across electronics, apparel and beauty as shoppers divide larger purchases into manageable payments. PYMNTS’ data indicates that over 75% of paycheck-to-paycheck consumers have used BNPL in the past year, with younger shoppers being the most frequent users.

The U.S. BNPL market is set to reach $175 billion in transaction volume by 2025, solidifying its role as a tool for managing budgets. Digital wallets are also expanding, particularly within mobile-focused checkout processes and conversational shopping platforms.

Shoppers Stretch the Season, Then Surge in Late December

ChatGPT anticipates that the 2025 shopping season will be more consistent across November and December rather than peaking around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Early promotions and AI-driven pricing encourage earlier purchases as retailers compete for consumer spending.

Still, the model predicts a surge in late December, especially between Dec. 15 and Dec. 22, driven by pickup orders, fast shipping deals, and last-minute gifts. Corporate gifting adds to this trend as companies make bulk purchases.

The larger economic context explains why the season may be extended. Americans have $18.6 trillion in household debt, including record credit card balances, according to PYMNTS analysis. Nearly half of consumers say they would struggle to handle a $2,000 emergency. As a result, shoppers may be more careful with their spending.

Returns Rise in January, Favoring Retailers With Frictionless Flows

ChatGPT predicts a slight increase in returns in early January as consumers exchange sizes or replace early-season purchases found later at lower prices. Retailers that make the process easy, such as having box-free returns, instant refunds, and same-day exchanges may boost sales during these visits.

The model suggests that categories with high variability, like apparel and beauty, could see the most significant volume of returns. Electronics returns may also rise, especially when holiday discounts overlap with new-year sales events.

 

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Speed Raises $8 Million to Expand Bitcoin and Stablecoin Payment Solutions | PYMNTS.com

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The company will use the new funding to build capacity, expand to new regions, develop more merchant tools, enable cross-border and creator payouts, and maintain reliability and compliance, it said in a Tuesday (Dec. 16) blog post.

Speed’s offerings include a global payment layer called Speed Merchant that is designed for merchants, platforms and payment systems and enables them to accept both Bitcoin and stablecoins, according to the post.

The company also offers a Lightning wallet called Speed Wallet that serves individuals and businesses and enables Bitcoin and stablecoin transfers, supports global payouts, offers local on- and off-ramps, and powers USDT transactions, the post said.

“We’ve always believed that Bitcoin and stablecoins can power everyday payments,” Speed CEO Niraj Patel said in the post. “That requires real infrastructure—fast, compliant and scalable. This investment validates that belief and accelerates our mission.”

Speed co-founder Jayneel Patel said in the post that the company aims to “solve real problems with technology.”

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“Speed started as a merchant solution and has grown into a global payment network,” Jayneel Patel said, adding the company is “ready to take the next leap.”

Stablecoin issuer Tether and venture fund ego death capital co-led the funding round, per the post.

Tether said in a Tuesday press release that its investment supports its strategy to support Bitcoin-aligned financial infrastructure and expand the utility of its USDT stablecoin in real-world payment environments.

“We support teams building practical infrastructure that reduces friction in payments and expands access to reliable settlement rails,” Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in the release.

Tether’s USDT stablecoin is the most traded cryptocurrency by volume around the world.

Adam Gebner, associate at ego death capital, said in a Tuesday blog post that Speed processed over $1.5 billion in payment volume over the past 12 months and serves more than 1.2 million users.

“By bridging Lightning and stablecoins in a single, compliant platform, Speed is positioning itself as foundational infrastructure for the Bitcoin and stablecoin economy, serving merchants, platforms and users across both developed and emerging markets,” Gebner said in the post.

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Databricks Targets $134 Billion Valuation in New Funding Round | PYMNTS.com

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Data analytics/artificial intelligence (AI) firm Databricks is reportedly raising $4 billion in a new funding round.

This Series L round would value the company at $134 billion, up 34% from its last session of funding during the summer, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported Tuesday (Dec. 16).

Ali Ghodsi, Databricks’ co-founder and CEO, told the WSJ the company plans to use the new funding to invest in its core data-analytics products and AI software, while also letting its workers engage in secondary share sales.

The company, among the most valuable private firms in Silicon Valley, also plans to hire around 600 fresh college graduates in 2026, the CEO added, in addition to adding thousands of new jobs worldwide in Asia, Latin America and Europe. It also plans to hire AI researchers, who are typically paid top salaries, the WSJ added.

The report noted that Databricks has benefited from the AI boom, which relies partially on private corporate data to customize AI models. Databricks told the WSJ that its data-warehousing product, which can serve as an underlying data platform for AI services, surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate at the end of October.

This year has seen Databricks ink deals with OpenAI and Anthropic to help sell AI services to business customers. Each of these partnerships are designed to push clients to develop AI agents, or independent bots that can carry out tasks on behalf of humans.

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The company’s new funding round comes three months after Databricks’ Series K round, which valued it more than $100 billion, up from $62 billion at the start of the year.

In other AI news, PYMNTS wrote earlier this week about The General Intelligence Company of New York, a start up developing agent-based systems designed to take over large portions of company operations.

“The company’s name deliberately evokes Gilded Age ambition, and founder Andrew Pignanelli told PYMNTS that the reference was intentional,” that report said. “He said he views AI as foundational infrastructure for the next era of company-building, much as railroads and industrial capital reshaped the United States economy more than a century ago.”

The company started by working backward from “the one-person billion-dollar business,” as Pignanelli termed it.

“We started at the end, the actual one-person billion-dollar company, and worked our way back and we were like, ‘What can we do today?’” he said.

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Apple App Store Fees Face Pressure From EU Developers | PYMNTS.com

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A collection of app developers and consumer groups want Europe to enforce laws against Apple.

The Coalition of App Fairness (CAF) on Monday (Dec. 15) issued an open letter to the European Commission (EC) accusing the tech giant of “persistent” non-compliance with Europe’s Digital Markets Act (DMA).

The letter follows findings from the EC that Apple had violated the DMA by keeping developers from directing users to alternative payment methods, fining the tech giant $588 million.

Apple in turn revised its terms for its app store to impose fees that ranged from from 13% for smaller businesses to up to 20% for App Store purchases. However, the CAF says Apple has not addressed what it calls a core issue: the company’s fees are preventing fair competition.

“The law says that gatekeepers like Apple must allow developers to offer and conduct transactions outside of the App Store free of charge,” the letter said. “However, Apple is now charging developers commission, fees of up to 20% for such transactions. This is a blatant disregard for the law with the potential to vanquish years of meaningful work by the Commission.”

The CAF also notes that Apple plans to introduce new terms and conditions for the App Store next month, and says it suspects the new terms will include fees that violate the DMA.

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“Apple cannot be permitted to exploit its gatekeeper position by holding the entire industry hostage,” the letter added.

PYMNTS has contacted Apple for comment but has not yet gotten a reply. The company had in September called on the commission to rethink the DMA, which was created to prevent market abuse by tech giants doing business in Europe.

“Over that time, it’s become clear that the DMA is leading to a worse experience for Apple users in the EU,” Apple wrote in a blog post. “It’s exposing them to new risks, and disrupting the simple, seamless way their Apple products work together. And as new technologies come out, our European users’ Apple products will only fall further behind.”

In its blog post, Apple argued the DMA requirements for allowing other app marketplaces and alternative payment systems don’t take into account the privacy and security standards of the App Store, putting customers at risk for being overcharged or scammed.

“The DMA also lets other companies request access to user data and core technologies of Apple products,” the company wrote. “Apple is required to meet almost every request, even if they create serious risks for our users.”

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